Historical Social Research/ Historische Sozialforschung HSR Vol. 33 (2008) No. 4 – Focus: Stochastic Demographic Dynamics and Economic Growth
Tapas Mishra Stochastic Demographic Dynamics and Economic Growth Stochastische Bevölkerungsdynamik und Wirtschaftswachstum
This monographic HSR FOCUS has two broad objectives: First, to model population growth in a stochastic framework such that the effects of possible non-mean convergent shocks could be studied theoretically on long-run economic growth and planning. Second, an empirical strategy for modelling stochastic population growth over time is provided. Forecasting exercise has been rigorously carried for population growth and income by embedding the stochastic growth feature of population. For modelling purpose, a long-memory mechanism for population growth is suggested so that the classical economic growth assumption of constant and/or non-stochastic population growth in economic growth models appear as a limiting case.
The analytical results show that embedding the stochastic features of population growth helps in explaining the economic growth volatility. In particular, it is found to be a formidable cause of the presence of long-memory in output. The empirical analysis shows that unless the stochastic feature of population growth is taken into empirical growth models, we will not be able map out the significant effects of demographic variables consistently over time. It is also shown that how corroborating the information of stochastic shocks of population alters our forecast vision by impacting significantly on the precision of the estimates.
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Focus
Tapas Mishra Stochastic Demographic Dynamics and Economic Growth: An Application and Insights from the World Data.
1. Introduction: Cross Country Growth Variations – Tracing Causes, Sources and Consequences. 9
2. Cliometrics of The Abiding Nexus Between Demographic Components and Economic Development. 14
3. Stochastic Demographic Dynamics, Economic Growth and Long-memory. 61
4. Population Forecasting with Stochastic Long Memory Framework. 95
5. A Further Look into the Demography-based Income Forecasting Method. 144
6. Conclusions: Policy Analysis and Development Objectives. 174 References 178 Acknowledgements 184 List of Tables 185 List of Figures 186
Mixed Issue
Articles
Nina Baur Taking Perspectivity Seriously. A Suggestion of a Conceptual Framework for Linking Theory and Methods in Longitudinal and Comparative Research. 191
Karl-Heinz Reuband Die Leserschaft des „Stürmer“ im Dritten Reich. Soziale Zusammensetzung und antisemitische Orientierungen. 214
Cliometrics
Fernando Zanella The Spend-and-Tax or Tax-and-Spend: Further Evidence for the Brazilian Imperial Period. 255
Antoine Parent When Economists “Tell Histories”: the Truncated Story of Central Banks’ Cooperation over the Bimetallic Period. 264
Antonio Luigi Paolilli Development and Crisis in Ancient Rome: the Role of Mediterranean Trade. 274
Review-Essays
Lars Allolio-Näcke Turn, turn, turn around – bis die Konturen verschwimmen. 290
Rainer Diaz-Bone Gibt es eine qualitative Netzwerkanalyse? 311
Nina Leonhard Gedächtnis und Kultur – Anmerkungen zum Konzept der „Erinnerungskulturen“ in den Kulturwissenschaften. 344
Obituary
In Memoriam – Charles Tilly: 1929-2008. 358