Historical Social Research / Historische Sozialforschung 33 (2008), 4

Historical Social Research/ Historische Sozialforschung
HSR Vol. 33 (2008) No. 4 – Focus: Stochastic Demographic Dynamics and Economic Growth

Tapas Mishra
Stochastic Demographic Dynamics and Economic Growth
Stochastische Bevölkerungsdynamik und Wirtschaftswachstum

This monographic HSR FOCUS has two broad objectives: First, to model population growth in a stochastic framework such that the effects of possible non-mean convergent shocks could be studied theoretically on long-run economic growth and planning. Second, an empirical strategy for modelling stochastic population growth over time is provided. Forecasting exercise has been rigorously carried for population growth and income by embedding the stochastic growth feature of population. For modelling purpose, a long-memory mechanism for population growth is suggested so that the classical economic growth assumption of constant and/or non-stochastic population growth in economic growth models appear as a limiting case.

The analytical results show that embedding the stochastic features of population growth helps in explaining the economic growth volatility. In particular, it is found to be a formidable cause of the presence of long-memory in output. The empirical analysis shows that unless the stochastic feature of population growth is taken into empirical growth models, we will not be able map out the significant effects of demographic variables consistently over time. It is also shown that how corroborating the information of stochastic shocks of population alters our forecast vision by impacting significantly on the precision of the estimates.

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Focus

Tapas Mishra
Stochastic Demographic Dynamics and Economic Growth: An Application and Insights from the World Data.

1. Introduction: Cross Country Growth Variations – Tracing Causes, Sources and Consequences. 9

2. Cliometrics of The Abiding Nexus Between Demographic Components and Economic Development. 14

3. Stochastic Demographic Dynamics, Economic Growth and Long-memory. 61

4. Population Forecasting with Stochastic Long Memory Framework. 95

5. A Further Look into the Demography-based Income Forecasting Method. 144

6. Conclusions: Policy Analysis and Development Objectives. 174
References 178
Acknowledgements 184
List of Tables 185
List of Figures 186

Mixed Issue

Articles

Nina Baur
Taking Perspectivity Seriously. A Suggestion of a Conceptual Framework for Linking Theory and Methods in Longitudinal and Comparative Research. 191

Karl-Heinz Reuband
Die Leserschaft des „Stürmer“ im Dritten Reich. Soziale Zusammensetzung und antisemitische Orientierungen. 214

Cliometrics

Fernando Zanella
The Spend-and-Tax or Tax-and-Spend: Further Evidence for the Brazilian Imperial Period. 255

Antoine Parent
When Economists “Tell Histories”: the Truncated Story of Central Banks’ Cooperation over the Bimetallic Period. 264

Antonio Luigi Paolilli
Development and Crisis in Ancient Rome: the Role of Mediterranean Trade. 274

Review-Essays

Lars Allolio-Näcke
Turn, turn, turn around – bis die Konturen verschwimmen. 290

Rainer Diaz-Bone
Gibt es eine qualitative Netzwerkanalyse? 311

Nina Leonhard
Gedächtnis und Kultur – Anmerkungen zum Konzept der „Erinnerungskulturen“ in den Kulturwissenschaften. 344

Obituary

In Memoriam – Charles Tilly: 1929-2008. 358